The End of Jobs?

10%! The New Normal?

Is 10% unemployment the new normal?  The numbers the USA enjoyed during the Bush years are not likely to be seen again because they were the result of an unsustainable nationwide/worldwide building boom. All during those years and prior, jobs, real sustainable jobs, had been shrinking due to the efficiency needs of industry. Not only have those jobs been outsourced to cheaper labor abroad but in many cases they have been eliminated altogether due to robotization, even in countries with abundant cheap labor. 


Need a Formula?


AP Economic Writer, Jeannine Aversa, presents an interesting formula, described here, that shows just why high unemployment numbers may be with us for a long time to come. But even this mathematical figuring does not take into account the extreme shift from human labor to robots. Now that we can "manufacture" slaves, in the form of machines, that can even replicate themselves, a new way of thinking about "employment" has to be explored.

Auto Making: Going, going, Gone!

This video of a modern VW plant speaks volumes, as does this video of a new Ford factory in Brazil. 

As you watch these videos, as fascinating as the factories are, pay close attention to the workers manning these plants… or the startling lack thereof!

Electronics

How much of the stuff we buy and use everyday no longer employs human workers… at all!? The Sharp TV Company in Japan recently opened an LCD TV screen manufacturing plant that uses not a single worker, yet will, by the end of this year, produce scores of thousands of large flat screen TVs! 

Cell Phones

Hundreds of millions of cell phones are manufactured worldwide every year….. by a handful of employees as seen here.

Building Material 

How about something as mundane as concrete blocks? Check out this factory in Belgium.

Food Shelter and Clothing

The list of products we use daily are, for the most part, made without much human labor. Even farming has been automated, from wheat production to egg production.

Here at Fair Oaks dairy farm in Indiana 32,000 cows are milked every day…. Essentially by machines with the help of the cows themselves! 

Another example, this one of robots cutting complex shapes from materials as diverse as denim, felt and foam.

What else is there? Well, how about surgery?

What once required a team of highly skilled surgeons is now routinely done by machines.

Wanna Fly-Away from it all?

In the recent past, when passengers were whisked from city to city and country to country via air transport, their route was plotted by an onboard crewman: Navigator, instruments were monitored by another: the Flight Engineer, the plane was flown by yet a third: the Pilot and for a fourth: his back-up, the Co-Pilot.

Satellites and today’s GPS mapping and broadcasting has eliminated the need for navigators. Electronic monitors keep an unblinking eye on the instruments and many flights forego a co-pilot altogether.

Are pilots the next to go? Unmanned Ariel Vehicles are already being used around the world in surveillance, war, and law enforcement. When will we be boarding the equivalent of the UAV 747? It’s just a matter of time.

The Labor Free World!

Have we finally reached the point of the labor-free world? Most things the modern world uses are made by machines. Need more production? No need to hire more workers…. More production can be obtained by simply turning a dial!

Well, what’s the point of all this? Aside from the fantastic advances man has made in the evolution of machines and artificial intelligence, the part of the equation left out is literally that of the human being.

What are 7, 10, or 20 Billion Humans going to do to earn a living when only a couple billion are a billion too many? The English and French are trying The Dole. But unless the Americans, the EU or the Chinese are willing to pick-up the slack, providing a free lunch, the basic Laws of Thermodynamics tells us this scheme too is unsustainable.  The Law of Thermodynamics is currently being tested in Greece where legions of bureaucrats are highly paid but produce nothing. The Germans or the EU will have to pay the freight for the Greeks just to avert Euro-disaster. Even this will play-out as only a short term solution…..  Kick the can down the road. But it’s not a road; it’s a Blind Alley.

Even if The Dole could somehow be made to work, there’s always the axiom, “Idle hands are the Devils workshop,” to deal with. In France those hands are used nightly to burn cars. In other places they are used in the pursuit of other forms of social ills demonstration.

Man has the mental capacity to invent and develop fantastic machines to create a labor free world of lazy pursuits, yet he lacks the vision to see the true and complete product of his work. Is 10% the new normal or is it just the prelude to even bigger numbers?


Where are the Solutions?


These are problems that our elected representatives were hired to solve. But instead they have chosen to curry favor with a block of voters through: numerous entitlement programs, promises of "health" through expensive government schemes, rich paying government jobs, payoffs to unions, and other either non-productive individuals and entities, earmarks and other wasteful spending "projects." They have latched on to complete idiocy, like Global Warming, to gain even more wealth and control over the lives of human beings, but without even an inkling of how wealth is actually created, all the while living like Potentates, a class apart. One harkens back to Orwell's  Animal Farm, where all the animals are equal, except some are more equal than others. How is it that so many politicians, most whom have never had a real job, never hired a real employee that made a real widget, born into a middle-class family, wins an election, travels to Washington then returns home a few years or a career later multi-millionaires?


Cheers, Mel


Post Script: This morning Feb. 17, 2010, from Bulletin News:

Two Million-Plus Manufacturing Jobs Lost During Recession   The CBS Evening News reported, "As the US economy struggles, we're not just losing jobs, we're losing manufacturing jobs, the kind that pay well, have benefits and provide a comfortable middle-class lifestyle. Of the nearly 8.5 million jobs lost since the recession began, more than a quarter were in manufacturing and getting them back may require a big change in attitude about working with our hands." CBS went to say that "America has largely stopped making things," and noted that "in the year 2000, more than 17 million Americans were employed in manufacturing," but "by last year, that had dropped to fewer than 12 million."

Hockey Stick Shenanigans

Hockey stick observed in NOAA ice core data

Hockey stick observed in NOAA ice core data

My previous post contains details that show weather data has been "altered" to fit the need of those seeking money, power, and control over virtually every aspect of life on the planet. My gosh, these people have powerful government agencies working to that end. Take as an example the EPA which has, in all its wisdom, decided that the air we breath (all air breathing creatures) is a pollutant! My granddaddy used to wonder when the government would figure out a way of taxing the very air we breath... Well Baba, if you can hear me, they have..... it's called Cap and Trade.

The link above displays the famous "hockey stick" data that scientists hang their hat on, as proof that we are indeed in a warming period, never-mind the alternative, which is a cooling period - read Ice Age - because the weather NEVER stays the same for long. Click on the link, it's an easy short read with some very interesting graphs - including the vaunted Hockey Stick. It's an eye-opener and explains why the Jim Rogers of the world are busy buying-up prime agriculture properties in the subtropical regions of the world..... they are betting big on a broken Hockey Stick!

Cheers, Mel Shapiro

The Greatest Hoax On Earth...EVER!

If, after reading this link,  you have any faith left in science, you are the personification of the "cockeyed optimist!" "EXPOSED" is what the headline of the New York Times should read, but strangely, it's quiet on this hugely important story. The entire world's wealth hinges on what governments do in regard to "carbon footprint," "Cap and Trade," oil exploration, electricity development and distribution, food production, jobs and ultimately world prosperity.

Shoot the Messenger, Control the World!

Instead, to the Times and others, it's: Shoot The Messenger! This, after Global Warming is exposed as a gigantic, perhaps the world's greatest, hoax! It's a HOAX, but Obama and company will push further in a headlong rush to destroy all that makes America, America! This crew and their minions are not interested in the fable of "alternative energy," they want NO energy. They talk about "Clean Coal," an oxymoron. They talk about wind and solar energy, terribly inefficient. What they are after is the total CONTROL of all energy. Control of energy is the ultimate control of humanity. The weather, or Climate Change, or Global Warming, has been the fear tool used thus far. If you are in the camp that wants to live in the TV Series, "The Prisoner," or the English movie, "Brazil," or Orwell's "1984" or "Animal Farm," stop reading.

Prosperity Now!

What the USA should be doing right now is seeking prosperity. Forget the rest of the world because when the USA is prosperous, the rest of the world is prosperous too. Instead, our dear leaders are offering tax increases upon the country's very job creation engine: small business! Instead our dear leaders are hiring bureaucrats to regulate (sort of, like they did the Banks? or the Insurance Companies? or Wall Street?) or should I say to sit and knit, take home a check and look to purchase a new car with taxpayers money or buy a house with taxpayers money?

Not one of these government jobs, "saved or created," produces a single widget. No economic multiplier effect, unless the laws of physics have been part of the "Change" in Washington D.C.

It's EASY!

There is an easy way to get the engine of prosperity chugging again. I'll get to that, but first a little history. What made America great was: 1) a vast country of what appeared to be unlimited energy resources, and 2) a population free to exploit it. It's that simple. Two World Wars quickly depleted America's easy to get oil, converting that vital resource into freedom for Asia and Europe, but still America  moved forward because we were still far richer in these vital resources than all the other developed nations.

Energy = Wealth

As oil's cost increased, America's wealth waned. When oil reached nearly $150 a barrel last year, the US economy ground to a near halt. The world's engine of prosperity was literally choked-off. Greedy fraudsters,  selling bogus nonsensical products like "Carbon Offsets," aided and abetted by government "leaders," and a fraudulent scientific community, contributed mightily to the near demise of the greatest economy, while personally obtaining grants, some getting rich, others false fame, with little or no regard for the greater good.

Vast energy is still within our reach, as is full employment. Here's what we can do right now: 1) Instead of programs like "Cash for Clunkers," that actually exacerbate our problems, the government should offer tax credits for motor vehicle conversions to allow cars and trucks to run on compressed natural gas (CNG). America has huge natural gas reserves, often compared to the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia. 2) Build 1000 pocket-sized nuclear power plants.... in everyones backyard. Want electricity? Live with a nuclear power plant! This would apply to the Kennedy's and Bill Koch. This simple axiom has worked well for the French where 75% of electrical production comes from nuclear fission.

Jobs right NOW!

Imagine the jobs created by these two "programs!" Millions of good high-tech jobs, that not only employ men and women right now, but jobs that create infrastructure that goes on paying back for generations. America, once again, would lead the world to greater prosperity. The cost of oil would plummet; The use of electric vehicles would soar on the fuel of cheap electricity; CNG and electric "fill-up" stations in every business and home garage. The most expensive part of this energy distribution system is already, literally, in the ground. Every home and business has electricity and millions of home and businesses have natural gas lines.

Time will run-out....

It's long past time to get off the dime and get moving toward growth and prosperity again. This should be done before America falls further into the stultifying slumber of our forefathers homeland: England. Here's the other bright-side to this equation: Laurie David, the The Satchsquatch of Carbon Foot Print, could, without guilt, enjoy her 26 foot long bar-b-que and her 24,000 square foot house on Martha's Vineyard. She would also be free of the title: Hypocrite Queen.

Tempus Fugit

This year I've experienced a couple of firsts having to do with my age: 


On the 4th of July, while at a large birthday party, I had occasion to look around and notice that there wasn't another soul in the room my age. The closest was Rebecca; born in 1943, she is nearly 3 years younger. I was, by at least - not counting Rebecca - a half decade or more older than the next oldest person present. 

A couple days ago, I had need for some advice from an Apple Store tech regarding my computer. Having no appointment, I went to the "Genius Bar" and awaited my turn in line with the others that had no appointment. Soon it was my turn next. But just as I was about to be called an attractive young lady stepped in front of me - to the front of the line. I (gently) tapped her on the shoulder and mentioned that we - I and all those behind me - were waiting our turn in line and that I was next! "Well." she said, "I have an 11:15 appointment, and it's 11:15 now. Do you have an appointment?" Well no I stammered, and dropped the subject. A moment later the techie behind the bar motioned to the next in line, where upon the young woman stepped-up with, "I have an 11:15 appointment." The techie, a young man, perhaps 35, looked at her with a smile and then, much to my surprise, said, "Do you mind if I take this gentleman next? After all age before beauty." I was floored.

While walking Skipper this morning, a fellow, perhaps in his late forties, riding a golf cart slowed to a stop in front of us and said, "There's no sight more serene than watching an old man walk his dog in the morning."

I'm going to have to turn on some bright lights and take a closer look in the mirror, because, really, I don't see that old guy!

Cheers, Mel

Love Lost

An open Dear John Letter to Levi-Strauss, an old love affair.

Dear John, (oh I know your real name is Levi-Strauss 501 but bear with me) there's someone new in my life. I have loved you since I was a small boy. I have never cheated on you, never dated another, never gone without many of your clones in my closet. I love'd you. When I was a kid I'd pick you up at the store, take you home, get together with you (at first you were as stiff as a board and really blue) - but we, together, would climb into my hot-tub of soapy water and get to really know one another. In that tub we'd get to know one another is such intimate ways that I knew you would always be MINE!  

The first time you disappointed me was when I discovered that you had changed your name! Well, not really your name, but the way you signed it, and your stationary was no longer... leather..... but cardboard?! What a loss! But I adapted, I toughed it out and we stayed together. Actually I loved your pre-washed/preshrunk idea and took you home too. Recently, in need of yet another dose of your particular brand of love, I headed off for the Mall. 

What a disappointment! You are, finally and definitely, no longer you! 501s are no longer 501s, you've changed -- again! First I noticed that you are weird looking. Your warp or weave or something, gave your look a "vertical" line running through you. Next your basic fabric seemed, oh, I don't know, maybe I could describe it as "weak." I went ahead though and took you home again - the "original" dark blue color.  

Now it has to be said, one of the reasons I love'd you is that I could do virtually anything while with you..... work on my car or go out for dinner and a movie. Anything. But this time you weren't "right." Your color came off in copious amounts in areas of any abrasion, like the knees, (which is usual but not like this!) and in other less appropriate areas where almost any rubbing removed color and left whitish blotches, and the vertical lines in your fabric are more apparent.  

This past week, having lost a little weight, I decided to revisit you again, so I headed off for Macys. But what a let-down! I found you but your watch pocket was on crooked! I tried another pair and your seam ran down one leg crooked! Yet another pair.... but those I couldn't even button because the button holes were too small! And you all, even your not 501 brethren, all had that ugly "vertical" weave or warp or whatever to the material. I was so bummed.... I'd reached the end of my very long love affair, Acceptance/Tolerance. Love has its limits. I was no longer in love!  

On a trip to Costco I spotted the Kirkland brand jeans. Wow! Only 13 bucks AND made of the genuine article denim I loved. Now they are cut a trifle differently and no button fly, but hey, whats my choice? I bought 2 pair, they fit great and felt good too, Today I'm gonna get two more pair before they too become a cheap date. 

 

So John, this is good bye. I loved you unstintingly for over 60, yes, sixty! years. But I have a new love in my life. Good bye and good luck.

Cheers, Mel


The following is Levi's response:


From: Levi-MBXLevis <levistrauss@levi.com>
To: melvinshapiro@yahoo.com
Sent: Fri, November 13, 2009 2:03:26 PM
Subject: RE: Your Comment/Question

Hi Melvin,

Celina here from Levi's(r).  Thanks for checking in with us.

We are sorry to hear about your experience.  We take great pride in our company, our products and the loyalty of our consumers.  We take your feedback very seriously and assure you that your comments will be passed along to the appropriate management.

If there's anything else we can help you with, just email us back or give us a call at  1-800-USA-LEVI.  We're available Monday - Friday, 6:00am - 4:30pm Pacific Time.

Thanks again,

Celina
Levi Strauss & Co.
Consumer Relations
celher3531634

Health Care Solution

Change the Way you Think

In spite of what one thinks, there may be a solution to the health-care "problem." Unfortunately, the solution means thinking about and doing things differently than the way we currently are. The thinking part of the two is the bigger hurdle. 

Tort Reform

Every aspect of life in America is affected by Tort Law. Every time you turn around, there's mean ol'  Mr.Tort looking at you. In your own home, to the car and street that gets you to work and to the store, even the kids Saturday ball game is ruled by Mr. Tort. From the grocer's shiny floor, to every product we use, including the cart you push, to even the structure of the building, to even the discourse between customers, all aspects of life in America are ruled by Mr.Tort. And he is a nasty and expensive guy. 

In 1978 Piper Aircraft employed  in excess of 8,000 men and women and sold over 5000 airplanes. By 1987 half of all their revenues went to cover Liability Insurance; by 1991 the company went bankrupt. This same scenario was playing itself out at all US based General Aviation (GA) plants. While some of our citizens had Sued Their Way to Wealth others had been sued to death. In 1994 the General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994 put a lid on Tort Law as it related to GA; that piece of legislation had a singular effect on GA manufacturing in America: in 1997 GA manufacturers logged a record $4.7 billion in sales soaring over the previous years sales by a whopping 66%! More details regarding the Act are here. 

I mention GARA simply to highlight the difference a day can make. GA was going broke, down the tubes of litigation hell, but was saved by tort reform. Today the entire Health Industry, something like 20% of the economy, is going down those same tubes, bankrupting not a handful of airplane makers but the whole country. Our political parties and elected officials are in the firm grip of the trial lawyers who are literally suing their way to wealth while breaking the backs of American middle class earners. Big pharma, hospitals, virtually all health-care providers, pay huge liability insurance premiums just to stay alive. Of course all costs are borne by the final user and in this case that's John Q. Public; in the form of expensive service, high insurance premiums and a dwindling supply of providers. The Health Care System, if it is to survive to provide service to the entire citizenry, must have Tort Reform.... NOW.

Ownership

Insurance is something we can all relate to. Most of us have car and home insurance, we pay for it ourselves and we are covered by it from coast to coast. We purchase and "own" our insurance. Most States require drivers to have insurance, yet we aren't screaming for government provided home and auto insurance. We shop around for it and try to get the best deal we can. Some buy more extensive coverage than others but a basic policy is required to own and drive car. But when it comes to health insurance, most of us do not "own" our policies but enjoy the coverage that is mostly provided by insurance that is "owned" by our employers. We don't even think about it, other than we want it and employers provide it. Employers purchase insurance and it covers their employees. The insurance company can not pick and choose which employees are covered... it's a package deal. Unfortunately when a worker quits or is fired or simply takes a work "break," the insurance coverage (eventually) is lost. Once one is on ones own the rules change. When an individual applies for coverage, pesky items like preexisting conditions, age and other health related issues come into play determining the cost and quality or even the availability of coverage. This should change.

Mandated

People buy cell phones and cell phone plans, they purchase flat screen TVs and Xboxes; they buy beer and cigarettes and chips and gadgets of every ilk... but they won't buy health insurance, if not covered by work many just chance it. What this really means is that someone else will pick-up the expense through ER service or failure to pay the providing doctor or hospital. We all pay through more costly services. Because, again, the final user pays all the expenses. This has to change, personal responsibility has to play a role, even if it is mandated.

Clinics

Everyone must be required to carry health insurance. The whole idea of insurance dissolves if only those that incur losses are covered. If that were the case premiums would be all but unaffordable. The insurance pool must include everyone, the young, the old, the healthy the sick... everyone must pay into the pool. That's the way insurance works. All health insurance should be available nationally, not restricted by State borders,  and all policies should be "owned" and paid for by the individual. Employers, relieved of insurance premiums would be required to pass on the insurance savings to employees. Employers would gladly relinquish this onerous responsibility and other savings, beyond the cost of premiums, would accrue to the employer. A basic health insurance policy, perhaps along the lines of "major-med" should be required of all citizens/residents. A "proof of coverage" can be easily devised, but everyone must be insured. Some individuals will fall through the cracks, as do some drivers. They would have to be insured by the state, and provided with the minimum coverage, service delivered by State supported public clinics. This service would be available to all those that fall below the poverty line, which would be adjusted to include the cost of medical insurance.

That leaves the illegals. As long as we allow them to enter the country, to stay, to work, and to raise families, we have no choice but to include them in State provided policies. This is just the practicality of the situation. We will not deny medical service to anyone. That's not who we are.

Private Sector

All the above should be provided by the private sector. We know from experience that the government cannot provide cost effecient and competitive service. With-out the profit motive and the efficiencies of the competitive market there are no savings, there is no efficiency... these things are the opposite of all that is embodied in the phrase, "government bureaucracy."

So there it is, by the numbers, five parts to a better system: 

• 1) TORT Reform
• 2) Ownership
• 3) Mandated
• 4) Clinics
• 5) Private Sector

Cheers, Mel

Asleep

Cash for Conversion...

The Federal Government should encourage and subsidise the conversion of trucks and automobiles to run on CNG. As proposed by T. Boone Pickens, converting our rolling stock to run on CNG (compressed natural gas) would reach throughout the economy and stimulate industry from the ground up: from the gas fields to the service stations to all the vehicles we drive. Machine shops, fittings, hoses, tanks, contractors and construction equipment would all be employed creating hundreds of thousands of jobs. Think about it..... a lot of the infrastructure is already in place. Every community that offers natural gas to homes and businesses already has the pipelines in the ground. All that would be needed would be compressors, pumps and storage facilities. Mini stations "in a box" could be built and sold or leased for installation wherever a gas pipe lays, even in one's home garage! And, during it all and forever after it would all pay-back in real terms. Jobs, new industries, and savings of every kind. Money would be created and saved as would oil. The cost of oil would dramatically fall too. Profits would soar and the cost of living would fall.

Cheap Energy

Combined with the creation of 1000 nuclear power plants coast to coast, and the effect of the above would be a thousand fold and the pay-off would last hundreds of years. Millions of real jobs created. REAL JOBS! America would be flooded with cheap energy. Cheap energy is the key to the good life. It is the reason America has achieved the highest standards of living on Earth; standards that America alone has endeavored to spread around the world. All this AND a real step towards genuine energy independence!

Fixing the Economy is not the goal!

It won't happen. Many Americans are suffering from a fundamental misunderstanding of what's going on in this economy, in this presidential administration. In my previous posting I used The Peter Principle to define America's current leadership. But I was wrong, these folks are not incompetent. They know exactly what they are doing and they are achieving their long sought goals. Put simply, this administration does not want a solution to the economic condition we now find ourselves in. Any solution that brings us back to the America I grew-up in, any EVOLUTIONARY SOLUTION is unacceptable. That would be antithetical to the whole movement now represented by Washington D.C. They, our elected and appointed leaders, AS OBAMA HIMSELF HAS OPENLY STATED and upon which he based his campaign, want "Fundamental Transformation of America!" "CHANGE!" That means American -- What?; Obama Styled -- Revolution! This revolution has been in the works from the ground-up for forty years, way before Obama came on the scene. This revolution has at its heart the destruction of everything American. Starting with that icon of America, GM. Done!

Forty Years in the works....

It blossomed in the 60's with SDS, Weather Underground, Black Panthers, ACLU, Southern Poverty Law Center, and others. It has insidiously spread its tentacles, preaching "Fundamental Change" throughout the country with systematic attacks on the likes of the Boy Scouts of America, the YMCA, the Church, the Family. ALL values have been turned on their head. It spread its ideology to the PTA, public schools, teachers; all co-opted, as were the Universities, the Courts and Judges, and Legislatures from the town and county council to the State to Washington D.C. One of the prime targets was the School of Journalism, in every major university in the country... from whence the message and the movement was carried into the media: to the Papers, to TV, to the News, to Radio, to Magazines. They... these revolutionaries, now own these voices from the NY Times to NBC and to nearly every organ in between! Solid old line conservative icons of the American press have been "fundamentally changed." From there it has seeped into the consciousness of the citizen. It's been like prostate cancer.... slow moving, painless... until the victim is impotent. It was not a grand plan... it just evolved through slow but steady organized pressure. Its like "The Body Snatchers," fall asleep and you're gone. We've been asleep, we Americans, making a living and trusting to our elected officials and to those guiding our institutions all that we held sacred. We were deep, deep, asleep.

Wake-up!

We are awakening now, but unfortunately we awaken to the realization that a significant number among us have been "snatched." This number has embraced the seduction of the concept of sharing the wealth... of others. Seeing and hearing the vehemence of each side in this now boiling take-over attempt, I fear another civil war..... just as bloody as the first one...... which was the bloodiest war America has ever known. More deadly than all the losses combined, that Americans have suffered in every war since we've been a country. We - YOU and I ARE the new Indians or the new Southerners, we are the new "slave holders" that have to be destroyed. WE are the ones that have to be.... WIPED-OUT, so that the New Dream of a Brighter Tomorrow can emerge.

This is an extreme view... a terrible nightmare. And it can be avoided... through acquiescence..... or it can be averted by taking back, through the polls, our government. Our institutions must be examined. Our children's teachers must have a fundamental understanding of what makes America tick, what makes America unique. When I hear our teachers speak I am appalled. We can no longer sleep. Too much is at stake. Or we can just lay our heads down to sleep and to dream.... A new Dream of Change..... of a new tomorrow, coming soon to a theater near you.....

Cheers, Mel